000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082200
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2029 UTC Tue Nov 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A gale warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec
beginning early Thursday morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are expected across the Tehuantepec area over the next several
days as a ridge builds and persists across eastern Mexico and the
western Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to further increase to
minimal gale force during the overnight and early morning hours
Thursday through Friday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N92W to 1011 mb
low pressure centered near 10N103W to 11N109W. Then, it resumes
from 16N113W to 1011 mb low pressure centered near 14N119W to
11N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
can be found from 12N to 16.5N between 110W to 120W, and from 10N
to 14N between 120W and 124W. Scattered moderate is from 09N to
12N between 127W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

For the Gulf of Tehuantepec...please, see Special Features section
for details. 

For the Gulf of California...moderate to fresh winds are noted
across the northern Gulf of California based on scatterometer
data, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. High
pressure building across the U.S. Great Basin and Rocky Mountains
will support fresh to strong northwest winds over the northern
Gulf Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

Elsewhere...combined seas of 6-8 ft across the offshore waters
will continue to subside below 8 ft tonight, just ahead of
another set of long period NW swell spreading across the waters W
of Baja California on Wednesday. Seas of 8-12 ft will dominate the
offshore waters W of 112W by early Thursday morning. This swell
event will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by late Thursday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo
during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with
moderate mainly SW winds S of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will persist
across the region through the end of the week in mixed NW and SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front is over the NW waters and extends from 30N132W
TO 24N140W. Combined seas of 20-23 ft are noted behind the front
per the most recent altimeter pass. A 1022 mb high pres is ahead
of the front and dominates the N waters. The pressure gradient
between the high and lower press in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough is resulting in a belt of moderate to fresh trade winds
between the monsoon trough and about 20N W of 125W. A 1011 low
pres along the monsoon trough near 14N119W is also helping to
slightly increase the winds across this area.

Another small area of low pres is along the monsoon trough near
10N103W, and is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as
it turns northwestward and moves into a region of stronger upper-
level winds later this week.

Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across the forecast waters over the next several days,
particularly W of 110W.

$$
GR