000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080736
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
736 UTC Tue Nov 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 10N97W to
1010 mb low pressure centered near 09N104W. The monsoon trough
resumes at 15N110W, and extends to 1010 mb low pressure centered
near 13N116W, then on to 11N125W and then beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection on ongoing within 60 nm
either side of the monsoon trough west of 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

For the Gulf of Tehuantepec...fresh to strong gap winds are
expected to pulse tonight and the next several nights through
early in the week with the assistance of local drainage effects.
Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build by mid week north
of the area, possibly allowing winds to increase to minimal gale
force during the overnight hours late Wednesday night through the
next several days.

For the Gulf of California...High pressure building across the
U.S. Great Basin and Rocky Mountain regions will support fresh to
strong northwest winds over the northern Gulf by this evening,
lasting through Wednesday morning, with another pulse Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

Elsewhere...Long period northwest swell continues to propagate
across the region, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft over much
of the region west of 100W. This swell will gradually decay below
8 ft through mid week, just ahead of another set of long period
northwest swell. Looking ahead, this longer period swell will mix
with shorter period waves emerging out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of
Papagayo this morning, then diminish. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate
mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will
persist across the region through late in the week in mixed
northwest and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front reaching from 31N135W to 26N140W will start to weaken
later today and stall from 31N134W by late today then become
diffuse Wednesday. High pressure at 1021 mb area centered near
31N125W will weaken and shift east ahead of the cold front.
Various ship observations and scatterometer imagery continue to
indicate fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front. The
strong winds will spread across the discussion area north of 25N
west of 130W through late tonight before diminishing as the front
weakens.

Long period northwest swells of 8 to 11 ft covering the area will
decay below 8 ft west of a line from the central Baja California
peninsula to 15N140W by late tonight. However, another set of
northwest swell is accompanying the cold front. Reinforced wave
heights will range from 8 ft or greater west of a line from
30N120W to 10N140W by early Wednesday. This swell will then
gradually decay through the end of the week with yet a new set of
northwest swell pushing into the area late Thursday through
Friday. This set of swell will be associated with a new cold front
which will weaken as it crosses 30N140W Thursday night.

$$
CHRISTENSEN