000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080337
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 11N95W to
14N111W. The ITCZ axis extends from 13N118W to 10N130W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N TO 08N
between 80W-87W...from 09N to 11N between 96W and 103W...and
from 12N to 17N between 109W and 122W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 127W and
140W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

For the Gulf of Tehuantepec...fresh to strong gap winds are
expected to pulse tonight and the next several nights through
early in the week with the assistance of local drainage effects.
Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build again by mid week
north of the area, possibly allowing winds to increase to
minimal gale force during the overnight hours Wednesday night
through the next several days.

For the Gulf of California...Generally light to gentle breezes
will persist across the Gulf through Monday. High pressure
building across the U.S. Great Basin and Rocky Mountain regions 
early in the week will support fresh to strong northwest winds
over the northern Gulf by Tuesday evening, lasting 18 hours. 

Elsewhere...Long period northwest swell continues to propagate
across the region, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft over much
of the region west of 95W. This swell will gradually decay below 8
ft through mid week, just ahead of another set of long period
northwest swell. Looking ahead, this longer period swell will
mix with shorter period waves emerging out of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse each night through the Gulf
of Papagayo through mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate mainly
southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will persist
across the region through late in the week in mixed northwest and
southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure at 1020 mb area centered near 31N124W will weaken
and shift east ahead of a cold front approaching the area from
the west. Various ship observations and scatterometer imagery
indicates fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front.
The front is now southeast of 30N140W, and will stall from
30N131W to 25N137W Tuesday evening before becoming a remnant
trough by Wednesday. The strong winds will spread across the
discussion area north of 25N west of 130W through late tonight
before diminishing as the front weakens.

Long period northwest swells of 8 to 11 ft covering the area will
decay below 8 ft west of a line from the central Baja California
peninsula to 15N140W by late tonight. However, another set of
northwest swell will accompany the approaching cold front, and
wave heights will range from 8 ft or greater west of a line from
30N118W to 09N135W by early Wednesday, peaking at around 21 ft
near 30N140W by Tuesday. This swell will then gradually decay
through the end of the week with yet a new set of northwest
swell pushing into the area late Thursday through Friday. This
set of swell will be associated with a new cold front which will
weaken as it crosses 30N140W Thursday night.

$$
FORMOSA