000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071457 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1457 UTC Mon Nov 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 10N93W to 10N104W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 13N111W to 08N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 95W and 104W, and within 180 nm north of the axis between 111W and 122W and also between 127W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... For the Gulf of Tehuantepec...1019 mb high pressure remains anchored near Tampico Mexico, maintaining a fairly tight pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec Isthmus and supporting persistent fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. These winds will diminish through the day, but strong winds are expected to pulse again tonight and the next several nights through early in the week with the assistance of local drainage effects. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build again by mid week north of the area, possibly allowing winds to increase to minimal gale force during the overnight hours Wednesday night through Friday night. For the Gulf of California...Generally light to gentle breezes will persist across the Gulf through Monday. High pressure building across the U.S. Great Basin and Rocky Mountain regions early in the week will support fresh to strong northwest winds over the northern Gulf by Tuesday, pulsing through mid week. Limited fetch over the northern Gulf will keep seas 5 ft or less. Elsewhere...Long period northwest swell continues to propagate across the region, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft over much of the region west of 95W. This swell will gradually decay below 8 ft through mid week, just ahead of another set of long period northwest swell. Looking ahead, this longer period swell will mix with shorter period waves emerging out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thursday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse each night through the Gulf of Papagayo through mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will persist across the region through late in the week in mixed northwest and southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure at 1020 mb area centered near 30N126W will weaken and shift east ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the west. Various ship observations and an earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front. The front will pass southeast of 30N140W later today, and stall from 30N131W to 25.5N135W to 23N140W Tuesday before becoming a remnant trough by early Wednesday. The strong winds will spread across the discussion area north of 25N west of 130W through late tonight before diminishing as the front weakens. Long period northwest swells of 8 to 11 ft covering the area will decay below 8 ft west of a line from the central Baja California peninsula to 15N140W by late tonight. However, another set of northwest swell will accompany the approaching cold front, and wave heights will range from 8 ft or greater west of a line from 30N118W to 09N135W by early Wednesday, peaking at around 21 ft near 30N140W by early Tuesday. This swell will then gradually decay through the end of the week with yet a new set of northwest swell pushing into the area late Thursday through Friday. This set of swell will be associated with a new cold front which will weaken as it crosses 30N140W Thursday night. $$ LEWITSKY