000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 902 UTC Mon Nov 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N80W to 09N85W to 09N100W. The ITCZ continues from 13N113W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 14N to 16N between 110W and 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... For the Gulf of Tehuantepec...1018 mb high pressure remains anchored near Tampico Mexico, maintaining a fairly tight pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec Isthmus and supporting persistent fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. These winds will diminish through the day, but strong winds are expected to pulse again tonight and the next several nights through early in the week with the assistance of local drainage effects. Looking ahead, strong high pres will build again by mid week north of the area, possibly allowing winds to minimal gale force Wednesday and Thursday night. For the Gulf of California...Generally light to gentle breezes will persist across the Gulf through Monday. High pressure building across the Great Basin and Colorado early in the week will support fresh to strong northwest winds over the northern Gulf by Tuesday, persisting through mid week. Limited fetch over the northern Gulf will keep seas 5 ft or less. Elsewhere...Long period northwest swell continues to propagate across the region, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft over much of the region west of 95W. This swell will gradually decay below 8 ft through mid week, just ahead of another set of long period northwest swell reaches the waters off Baja California Norte. Looking ahead, this longer period swell will mix with shorter period waves emerging out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thursday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse each night through the Gulf of Papagayo through mid week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate mainly southwest winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft will persist across the region through late in the week in mixed northwest and southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1022 mb high pressure area centered near 30N126W will weaken and shift east ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the west. Various ship observations and a 06 UTC scatterometer pass indicate fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of and following the front. The front will pass southwest of 30N140W Monday, and stall from 30N130W to 23N140W Tuesday before becoming diffuse Wednesday. The strong winds will spread across the discussion area north of 25N west of 130W through late Monday before diminishing. 8 to 10 ft long period northwest swell covering the area will decay below 8 ft west of a line from the central Baja California peninsula to 15N140W by late Monday. However, another set of northwest swell will accompany the front, and wave heights will range from 8 to 18 ft northwest of a line from 30N125W to 15N140W by late Tuesday. This will decay gradually as it propagates east, with wave heights 8 to 14 ft cover the area northwest of a line from the central Baja California peninsula to 05N140W by late Wednesday, and 8 to 10 ft every west of 120W by late Thursday, ahead of a third set of northwest swell pushing into the area. $$ CHRISTENSEN