000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070331
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Nov 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N100W to 14N106W to
10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 94W and 107W, and
from 08N to 15N between 112W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Other than the strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
generally moderate NW winds are observed across the area under
the influence of weak ridge extending from 1021 mb high pressure
to 20N110W. No significant change is expected through Tuesday.
Lingering swell to 8 ft is present over much of the area between
Socorro Island and Los Cabos. However, another set of long
period 8 to 10 ft NW swell is propagating into the waters of
Baja California Norte tonight. The swell will reach as far south
as the Revillagigedo Islands as they decay through Monday
evening. Seas in this area are expected to subside below 8 ft by
Tuesday evening.

Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the area over the
southern Rockies will generate moderate to strong winds over the
northern Gulf of California Tuesday through Thursday night, with
seas building to 5 ft. A third set of long period NW swell will
reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte by mid week in
response to a cold front pushing E from 30N140W.

High pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to
support fresh to strong gap wind pulses mainly during the
overnight hours through the end of this week. Seas downstream of
the stronger winds are peaking at 8 feet tonight. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The fresh to locally strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo
have subsided. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail over
the waters north of 10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of
10N. Seas of 4-6 ft will persist across the region through
Thursday, as NW and S swell mix.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong S to SW winds will precede a cold front that will pass to
the SE of 30N140W Monday evening. The front will stall and
weaken over the NW waters from 30N131W to 25N135W by Tuesday
evening, then finally become diffuse on Wednesday.

Long period NW swell with seas of 8 to 12 ft continues to move
across the waters mainly north of 07N. The swell will decay
below 8 ft from west to east through late Monday, just ahead of
a reinforcing set of long period NW swell moving into the area.
The new swell will eventually overtake the entire area from the
central coast of the Baja California peninsula to 05N140W
through mid week with seas in excess of 8 ft. Seas to 12 to 20
ft will move across the waters N of 20N and W of 130W Tuesday
and Wednesday.

$$
Formosa