000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1405 UTC Sun Nov 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 11N84W to 09N98W to
13N106W to 10N120W to 08N129W. The ITCZ continues from 08N129W to
08N139W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present from 03N to 07N between 77W and 80W, within 210 nm either
side of the trough axis between 80W and 100W and from 09N to 14N
between 100W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Other than the strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
generally moderate NW winds are observed across the area under the
influence of weak ridge extending from 1023 mb high pressure near
29N130W through to 22N111W. No significant change is expected
through Tuesday. Lingering swell to 8 ft is present over much of
the area between Socorro Island and Los Cabos. However, another
set of long period 8 to 10 ft NW swell is propagating into the
waters of Baja California Norte this morning. The swell will reach
as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands as they decay through
Monday evening. Seas in this area are expected to subside below 8
ft by Tuesday evening.

Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the area over the
southern Rockies will generate moderate to strong winds over the
northern Gulf of California Tuesday through Thursday night, with
seas building to 5 ft. A third set of long period NW swell will
reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte by mid week in
response to a cold front pushing E from 30N140W.

The gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec is no longer in
effect. However...high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong gap wind pulses mainly during the
overnight hours through the end of this week. Seas downstream of
the stronger winds are peaking at 12 feet this morning, but will
subside to around 8 ft this evening, then rebuild tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The fresh to locally strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo
have subsided. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail over
the waters north of 10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of
10N. Seas of 4-6 ft will persist across the region through
Thursday, as NW and S swell mix.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The weak cold front that was near 30N140W has dissipated. Strong
S to SW winds will precede a stronger cold front that will pass
to the SE of 30N140W Monday evening. The front will stall and
weaken over the NW waters from 30N132W to 22N140W by Tuesday
evening, then finally become diffuse on Wednesday.

Long period NW swell with seas of 8 to 14 ft continues to move
across the waters mainly north of 07N. The swell will decay below
8 ft from west to east through late Monday, just ahead of a
reinforcing set of long period NW swell moving into the area. The
new swell will eventually overtake the entire area from the
central coast of the Baja California peninsula to 05N140W through
mid week with seas in excess of 8 ft. Seas to 12 to 20 ft will
move across the waters N of 20N and W of 130W Tuesday and
Wednesday.

$$
cam