000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Nov 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A
strong ridge building across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf
of Mexico will continue to support strong to minimal gale force
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early Sunday. Expect
max seas of 12-13 ft associated with this wind event today. Seas
of 8 ft or greater generated in this area are now reaching 100W.
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sunday
morning...and further diminish to 20-25 kt by Sunday night.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N90W to 11N100W to
10N115W. The ITCZ continues from 10N115W to 08N130W to 06N140W.
A cluster of moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 11.5N
between 88W and 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 08.5N to 11N between 84W and 88W. A cluster of moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 08.5N to 13N between 100W
and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be
found from 09N to 13N between 105W and 110W...and from 10N to
12.5N between 110W and 121W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters off Baja
California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient
between the ridge and a trough over northwest Mexico is resulting
in fresh to strong northerly flow across the southern Gulf of
California, particularly S of 25N. An earlier Ascat pass confirmed
the presence of these winds, forecast to diminish to 15-20 kt
this afternoon. Aside from the gale conditions in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, generally gentle to moderate winds persist. Gale
force winds are currently blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Please, see Special Features section for details.

Long period NW swell will continue to propagate SE across much of
the forecast waters. Seas 8-10 ft associated with this swell
event are affecting the waters W of Baja California, and seas of
8-9 ft are forecast to reach the Revillagigedo Islands later
today. Another set of reinforcing NW swell will enter the waters
of Baja California Norte Sunday, with overall combined seas
reaching up to 13 ft. Wave heights will subside as the swell
pushes south, but 8 to 10 ft seas are likely in the offshore
waters west of 100W through early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds were noted this morning across the Gulf
of Papagayo, and downstream to near 89W with seas of 6-7 ft. Winds
will diminish to 10-15 kt this afternoon, but another round of
fresh to locally strong gap winds is likely tonight into early
Sunday morning in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate to
fresh winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft will persist across the
region into the middle of next week, eventually with a mix of
northwest and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 18N139W to 13N140W. A weak low is
still noted on satellite imagery along the trough axis near 13.5N.
The gradient between the trough and high pressure north of the
area is supporting fresh to strong winds on the north periphery of
the trough. Another surface trough is analyzed from 13N113W to
08N135W. A small cluster of moderate convection is noted ahead of
this trough between 135W and 137W. Satellite imagery indicates
some inverted-V pattern in the cloud field in association with
this second trough. A weak cold front approaching 30N140W from
the north central Pacific will stall and become diffuse later to
day. Strong southerly winds will precede a strong cold front that
will pass to the southeast of 30N140W on Monday, but stall and
weaken over the NW waters from 30N132W to 22N140W by Tuesday,
before becoming diffuse through mid week.

Long period northwest swell with seas of 8 to 13 ft dominates the
waters generally north of 10N and west of 125W. This will overtake
the region mainly north of 08N and west of 105W through today,
with a reinforcing set of long period northwest swell moving into
the area through Sunday. Another set of long period northwest swell
will pass 30N140W on Monday associated with second front, with
seas up to 20 ft across the NW waters on Tuesday.

$$
GR