000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050823
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
823 UTC Sat Nov 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A
strong ridge building across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf
of Mexico will continue to support strong to minimal gale force
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sunday. Expect max seas
of 12-13 ft associated with this wind event. Seas generated in
this area are expected to reach 100W Saturday.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N94W to 10N114W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N114W to 09N130W. Scattered moderate is noted
within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 85W and 88W.
Scattered moderate is also noted within 60 nm north of axis
between 97W and 102W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters off Baja
California to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient
between the ridge and troughing over northwest Mexico is resulting
in fresh to strong northerly flow across the southern Gulf of
California through today. Aside from the gale conditions in the
Gulf of California, generally gentle to moderate winds persist. 

The first of a couple of sets of long period northwest swell is
reaching the waters off Baja California Norte. This will continue
to propagate southward, reaching as far south as the
Revillagigedo Islands later today with seas 8 to 10 ft. Another
set of reinforcing swell will enter the waters of Baja California
Norte Sunday, with overall combined seas reaching up to 13 ft.
Wave heights will subside as the swell pushes south, but 8 to 10
ft seas are likely in the offshore waters west of 100W through
early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong gap winds pushing into the Gulf of Papagayo this morning
will diminish to gentle to moderate flow by late morning. Another
round of gap winds is likely tonight in the Gulf of Papagayo, but
only to 20 kt. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail over
the waters north of 10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of
10N. Seas of 4-6 ft will persist across the region into the middle
of next week, eventually with a mix of northwest and southerly
swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 17N136W to 13N138W. No significant
convection is noted. The gradient between the trough and high
pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds on
the north periphery of the trough. A weak cold front approaching
30N140W from the north central Pacific will stall and become
diffuse later to day. Strong southeast winds will preceed a strong
cold front that will pass to the southeast of 30N140W Monday, but
stall and weaken from 30N130W to 24N140W Tuesday, before becoming
diffuse through mid week.

Long period northwest swell with seas of 8 to 13 ft dominates the
waters generally north of 10N and west of 125W. This will overtake
the region mainly north of 08N and west of 105W through today,
with a reinforcing set of long period northwest swell moving into
the area through Sunday. Another set of long period northwest swell
will pass 30N140W on Monday associated with second front, with
seas up to 20 ft across the NW waters on Tuesday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN