000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041523 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. First visible imagery of the day reveals a well defined rope cloud moving downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec...which likely delineates the leading edge of the current gap wind event. A strong ridge building across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to support strong to minimal gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Saturday night. Expect max seas of 12-13 ft associated with this wind event Friday night into Saturday morning. This gale event will likely persist through Sunday morning. Seas generated in this area are expected to reach 100W later today. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 10N100W to 10N110W to 8N130W. Then, from 1008 mb low pres near 14.5N135W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm north of the trough between 105W and 111W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters off Baja California to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds. The pres gradient between the ridge and a trough along the west coast of mainland Mexico is resulting in fresh to locally strong NW to N winds over much of the southern Gulf of California and the waters between Los Cabos and Las Tres Marias Islands. These winds are forecast to persist through tonight, diminishing to 10-15 kt by early Saturday morning. Gale force winds are currently blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for details. The most recent altimeter pass indicates seas of 5-7 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California. The first of a couple of sets of long period northwest swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte today, reaching as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands by early Saturday with seas 8 to 10 ft. This will be reinforced by another set of swell entering the waters of Baja California Norte Sunday, with overall combined seas reaching up to 13 ft. Wave heights will subside as the swell pushes south, but 8 to 10 ft seas are likely in the offshore waters west of 100W through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become strong late tonight into early Saturday morning. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft will persist across the region into the middle of next week, eventually with a mix of northwest and southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 20N133W to 1008 mb low pres located near 14.5N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 120 NM W semicircle of low. Similar convection is also seen from 14N to 18N between 127W and 133W, and from 12N to 15N W of 138W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring from 14N to 18N between 130W and 136W due to the pres gradient between the low and the ridge to the N. Seas to 12 ft are likely in the area of strong winds, mixed with northwest swell. Long period NW swell with seas of 8 to 13 ft dominates the waters generally north of 10N and west of 125W. This will overtake the region mainly north of 08N and west of 110W through Saturday, with a reinforcing set of long period NW swell moving into the area through Sunday. Another set of long period NW swell will reach 30N140W on Monday with seas up to 20 ft across the NW waters on Tue. A weak cold front will enter the NW waters early on Saturday, then stall over the same area and quickly dissipate by Saturday night. The next cold front is forecast to reach the discussion area by late Monday, extending from 30N135W to 24N140W by Monday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front. $$ GR