000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040917
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
916 UTC Fri Nov 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A
cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico today will
bring strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec reaching
minimal gale force winds early this morning then again tonight,
with seas building to 12 ft. This gale event will likely persist
through Sunday morning.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 11N92W to 10N105W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N105W to 11N125W to 10N130W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
105W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
also noted within 60 nm of 14N135W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure off northern California
to across the offshore forecast waters off Baja California to
beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Slightly lower pressure over
northwest Mexico is resulting in fresh northwest winds over much
of the southern Gulf of California through early Saturday. Aside
from these winds and the gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, light winds persist.

Seas are 4 to 6 ft currently. The first of a couple of sets of
long period northwest swell will move into the waters off Baja
California Norte today, reaching as far south as the Revillagigedo
Islands by early Saturday with seas 8 to 10 ft. This will be
reinforced by another set of swell entering the waters of Baja
California Norte Sunday, with overall combined seas reaching up to
13 ft. Wave heights will subside as the swell pushes south, but 8
to 10 ft seas are likely in the offshore waters west of 100W
through early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become strong late
tonight into early Saturday morning. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate to
fresh winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft will persist across the
region into the middle of next week, eventually with a mix of
northwest and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak low pressure is expected to form within a persistent area of
disturbed weather along the monsoon trough approximately 400 nm
southwest of Acapulco Mexico over the next several days. Tropical
cyclone development is not expected however as the low drifts west.

A surface trough reaches from 18N128W to 1011 mb low pressure
centered near 14N132W to 12N137W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
180 nm west of the trough. Fresh to strong winds likely ongoing
within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant of the low pressure,
facing the subtropical ridge to north. Seas to 12 ft are likely in
the area of strong winds, mixed with northwest swell.

The longer period northwest swell with seas of 8 to 14 ft
encompasses the waters generally north of 10n and west of 125W.
This will overtake the region mainly north of 08N and west of 120W
through Saturday, with a reinforcing set moving into the area
through Sunday. A weak cold front moves into the region late
tonight and is expected to stall from 32N132W to 28N140W Saturday.
A third set of swell will follow the front into the area by early
Monday, bringing a new round of 8 to 14 ft seas to the area from
32N120w to 12N140W by late Tuesday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN