000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031524 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1233 UTC Thu Nov 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will bring another gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Northerly winds are forecast to surge across the Tehuantepec area today reaching minimal gale force winds by tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft with these strong to gale force winds on Friday. This gale event will likely persist through Sunday morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 11N103W to 08N115W to 10N127W to 1010 mb low pres near 13N131W to 10N140W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection from 09.5N to 12N between 133W and 139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere from 10N to 15N W of 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly moderate NW to N winds are noted W of Baja California with seas of 6-8 ft based on a pair of altimeter passes. NW winds of 20-25 kt are blowing across the northern Gulf of California N of 30N with seas of 5-6 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less by this afternoon. Moderate northerly winds between Los Cabos and Las Tres Marias Islands...including the southern portion of the Gulf of California are expected to increase to 20-25 kt tonight and Friday night. High pressure is building southward over eastern Mexico. This will cause winds to increase over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. See the Special Features section for details. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the coast of Baja tonight into Friday...and the Revillagigedo Islands by Fri evening. Expect building seas across the offshore waters of Baja on Friday, with seas of 8-11 ft N of 20N W of 113W by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N through Monday night. NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become strong on Saturday during the early morning hours. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft are generally expected N of 10N and 5-7 ft seas S of 10N through Monday. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec area are expected to affect the offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ027 late Friday through Sunday. An elongated area of disturbed weather extends a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days, but environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for development late this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern waters anchored by a 1022 mb high pres located N of area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a 1010 mb low pres located along the monsoon trough near 13N131W is supporting an area of fresh to strong trade winds from 13N to 17N between 127W and 132W. The low is forecast to open up into a trough in about 24 hours. The area of fresh to strong winds will move westward in tandem with the trough forecast to be bear 140W by Saturday morning. A weakening stationary front is near 30N140W. Large long period NW swell in the wake of the front continues to propagate SE across the forecast waters building seas to 12-17 ft NW of a line from 30N132W to 25N140W. Seas of 8-12 ft are noted across much of the area N of 10N W of 125W. By Friday morning, seas of 8-13 ft will dominate the forecast waters W of a line from 30N117W to 20N125W to 15N123W to 10N140W with the highest seas of 12-13 ft N of 26N between 122W and 129W. The next cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W on Saturday and will quickly dissipate over the NW waters by Saturday night. A robust swell event appears to be in store on Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance suggests seas as high as 21 feet near 30N140W on Tuesday morning. $$ GR