000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 UTC Thu Nov 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will bring another gap wind event across the Tehuantepec area beginning Thursday night. Northerly winds are forecast to surge across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Thursday reaching minimal gale force winds by Thursday night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft by Friday evening. This gale event will likely persist through Sunday morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 11N90W to 09N109W. ITCZ continues from 09N109W to 11N128W...then resumes from 1010 mb low pres near 13N130W to 08N138W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 15N between 91W and 101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 13N between 135W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends SE from 29N130W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The northern Gulf of California N of 30N will experience NW winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas less than 8 ft this morning. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less by this afternoon. Light winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. High pressure will build southward over eastern Mexico Thursday. This will cause winds to increase over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. See the Special Features section for details. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the coast of Baja tonight into Friday...and the Revillagigedo Islands by Fri evening. Expect building seas across the offshore waters of Baja on Friday, with seas of 8-11 ft N of 20N W of 113W by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will wander between 08N and 10N through Monday night. NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become strong on Saturday during the early morning hours. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft are generally expected N of 10N and 5-7 ft seas S of 10N through Monday. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec area are expected to affect the offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ027 late Friday through Sunday. An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next few days, they could become more favorable this weekend while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge remains over the northern waters anchored by a 1022 mb high pres located near 28N128W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W, with seas ranging between 8 and 9 ft in this area. 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 13N130W. As the low moves westward, the pressure gradient on the N side of the low will generate an area of fresh to strong winds from 15N to 19N. The low is expected to finally move W of 140W by Sunday. Large long period NW swell generated to the N of a weakening frontal boundary are bringing seas of 8 to 16 feet to the portion of the forecast area N of 25N W of 132W. Seas associated with this swell event are peaking and will begin to slowly subside. Seas of 8-13 ft will dominate the forecast waters W of a line from 30N120W to 24N126W to 15N127W to 11N140W by Saturday morning. The next cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W on Saturday, followed by an a NW swell event which looks weaker than the current one. A much more robust event appears to be in store on Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance suggests seas as high as 24 feet near 30N140W on Tuesday morning. $$ cam