000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030225
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning has been issued for the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. A cold front moving across the western Gulf
of Mexico on Friday will bring another gap wind event across the
Tehuantepec area beginning Thursday night. Northerly winds are
forecast to surge across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Thursday
reaching minimal gale force winds by Thursday night. Seas are
forecast to build to 13 ft by Friday evening. This gale event
will likely persist through Sunday morning.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

Monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N95W to 08N110W to 1010
mb low pres near 13N129W to 10N135W. ITCZ extends from 10N135W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
15N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is
also from 09N to 17N between 122W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends SE from 29N130W to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Residual NW swell is producing 8 ft seas
N of 27N E of 120W for the next six hours. The northern Gulf of
California N OF 30N has NW winds 20 to 25 KT with seas less than
8 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less by
Thursday afternoon. Light winds prevail elsewhere across the
offshore waters. High pressure will build southward over eastern
Mexico Thursday. This will cause winds to increase over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for
details. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the
coast of Baja late Thursday into Friday... and the Revillagigedo
Islands by Fri evening. Expect building seas across the offshore
waters of Baja on Friday, with seas of 8-11 ft N of 20N W of
113W by Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N through
Sunday night. NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become
strong on Saturday during the early morning hours. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N,
with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft are
generally expected N of 10N and 5-7 ft seas S of 10N through the
end of this week. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec area are
expected to affect the offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ111 
late Friday through Sunday.

An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of El Salvador. Although environmental conditions are
not expected to be conducive for development of this system during
the next few days, they could become more favorable this weekend
while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge remains over the northern waters anchored by a 1023 mb
high pres located near 29N130W. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N
west of 120W, with seas ranging between 8 and 9 ft in this area.
A surface trough extends from 16N127W to 12N128W. As the trough
moves westward, the pressure gradient on the N side of the
trough will generate an area of fresh to strong winds from 12N
to 16N. The trough is expected to finally move W of 140W by
Monday. Large long period NW swell are beginning to propagate
into the northwest part of the forecast area. Seas associated
with this swell event will peak near 15 ft in the vicinity of
30N140W Thursday. Seas of 8-14 ft will dominate the forecast
waters NW of a line from 30N117W to 23N115W to 17N124W to
17N140W by Friday evening. The next cold front is forecast to
reach 30N140W early on Saturday, followed by additional pulses
of NW swell.

$$
FORMOSA