000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning has been issued for the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. A cold front moving across the western Gulf
of Mexico on Friday will bring another gap wind event across the
Tehuantepec area beginning Thursday night. Northerly winds are
forecast to surge across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Thursday
reaching minimal gale force winds by Thursday night. Seas are
forecast to build to 13-14 ft by early Friday afternoon. This
gale event will likely persist through Sunday morning.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N96W to 08N110W to
1010 mb low pres near 12N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 85W and 100W.
Scattered moderate convection is also from 08N to 16N between
122W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends SE from 28N131W to the Revillagigedo
Islands. The ridge is generating fresh to locally strong NW winds
along the coast of Baja California but mainly N of 28N and E of
117W with seas of 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are observed
along the remainder of the coast of Baja California. Light winds
prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters...including also the
Gulf of California or Sea of Cortez. Winds are forecast to increase
across the N part of the Gulf of California, mainly N of 30N, this
afternoon, as high pres builds across the Great Basin. Expect
building seas to 5-6 ft with these winds, forecast to diminish to
20 kt or less by early Thursday afternoon. High pressure will
build southward over eastern Mexico Thursday. This will cause
winds to increase over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see
Special Features section for details. Another set of long period
NW swell will reach the coast of Baja late Thursday into Friday...
and the Revillagigedo Islands by Fri evening. Expect building seas
across the offshore waters of Baja on Friday, with seas of 8-11
ft N of 20N W of 113W by Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N through
Sunday night. NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become
strong on Saturday during the early morning hours. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N,
with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft are
generally expected N of 10N and 5-7 ft seas S of 10N through the
end of this week. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec area are
expected to affect the offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ111 
late Friday through Sunday.

An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of El Salvador. Although environmental conditions are
not expected to be conducive for development of this system during
the next few days, they could become more favorable this weekend
while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge remains over the northern waters anchored by a 1022 mb
high pres located near 28N131W. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N
west of 120W, with seas ranging between 8 and 9 ft in this area.
A surface trough extends from 16N127W to 12N128W. As the trough
moves westward, the pressure gradient on the N side of the
trough will generate an area of fresh to strong winds from 12N
to 16N. The trough is expected to finally move W of 140W by
Monday. Large long period NW swell are beginning to propagate
into the northwest part of the forecast area. Seas associated
with this swell event will peak near 17 ft in the vicinity of
30N140W tonight. Seas of 8-13 ft will dominate the forecast
waters NW of a line from 30N117W TO 20N125W to 16N124W to
11N140W by Friday evening. The next cold front is forecast to
reach 30N140w early on Saturday, followed by additional pulses
of NW swell.

$$
FORMOSA