000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec with the morning forecast package. A cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will bring another gap wind event across the Tehuantepec area beginning Thursday night. Northerly winds are forecast to surge across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Thursday reaching minimal gale force winds by Thursday night. Seas are forecast to build to 13-14 ft by early Friday afternoon. This gale event will likely persist through Sunday morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N93W to 08N110W to 09N120W to 1008 mb low pres near 13N127W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 91W and 98W...N of 12N between 91W and 94W...and within 120 NM S of trough between 106W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 124W and 135W...and from 07N to 10N between 121W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends SE from 28N131W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge is generating fresh to locally strong NW winds along the coast of Baja California but mainly N of 28N and E of 117W with seas of 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are observed along the remainder of the coast of Baja California. Light winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters...including also the Gulf of California or Sea of Cortez. Winds are forecast to increase across the N part of the Gulf of California, mainly N of 30N, this afternoon, as high pres builds across the Great Basin. Expect building seas to 5-6 ft with these winds, forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less by early Thursday afternoon. High pressure will build southward over eastern Mexico Thursday. This will cause winds to increase over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see Special Features section for details. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the coast of Baja late Thursday into Friday... and the Revillagigedo Islands by Fri evening. Expect building seas across the offshore waters of Baja on Friday, with seas of 8-11 ft N of 20N W of 113W by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N through Sunday night. NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become strong on Saturday during the early morning hours. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. Seas of 4-6 ft are generally expected N of 10N and 5-7 ft seas S of 10N through the end of this week. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec area are expected to affect the offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ111 late Friday through Sunday. An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of the coast of El Salvador. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next few days, they could become more favorable this weekend while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge remains over the northern waters anchored by a 1022 mb high pres located near 28N131W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 120W, with seas ranging between 8 and 9 ft in this area. A surface trough extends from 18N125W to 13N126W. As the trough moves westward, the pressure gradient on the N side of the trough will generate an area of fresh to strong winds from 12N to 16N. The trough is expected to finally move W of 140W by Monday. Large long period NW swell are beginning to propagate into the northwest part of the forecast area. Seas associated with this swell event will peak near 17 ft in the vicinity of 30N140W tonight. Seas of 8-13 ft will dominate the forecast waters NW of a line from 30N117W TO 20N125W to 16N124W to 11N140W by early Friday morning. The next cold front is forecast to reach 30N140w early on Saturday, followed by additional pulses of NW swell. $$ GR