000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020940
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 UTC Wed Nov 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 09N81W to 13N95W to
08N117W. The ITCZ continues from 08N117W to 12N131W to beyond
09N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
present from 11N to 14N between 86W and 93W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 11N between
88W and 107W and from 09N to 14N between 127W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A High pressure ridge extends SE from 30N129W to near the
Revillagigedo Islands at 18N108W. The ridge is generating fresh to
strong winds along the Baja California coast N of 28N and E of
117W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
coast of Baja California Norte. Light winds prevail elsewhere over
the Pacific waters. Light to gentle winds are noted over the Gulf
of California. Seas are 7-8 ft in the Pacific waters W of Baja
California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere in the Pacific waters, and 0-2
ft in the Gulf of California. As the ridge continues to build E,
NW winds over the Gulf of California will become fresh to strong
tonight and Thursday. High pressure will build southward over
eastern Mexico Thursday. This will cause winds to increase over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds may reach gale force Thursday night through
Saturday night. Large long period NW swell generated behind a cold
front stalling near 30N140W will build seas to 8-11 ft Friday off
the coast of Baja California Norte.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N through
Sunday night. NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become
strong on Saturday during the early morning hours. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N,
with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. 4-6 ft seas are
generally expected N of 10N and 5-7 ft seas S of 10N through the
end of this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge remains over the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds north of
the ITCZ to 20N west of 120W, with seas ranging between 8 and 10
ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail
elsewhere across the region. A surface trough reaches from
13N124W to 17N123W. As the trough translates W, the pressure
gradient on the N side of the trough will generate an area of fresh
to strong winds from 12N to 16N. The trough is expected to finally
move W of 140W by Monday. Large long period NW swell are beginning
to propagate into the northwest part of the forecast area. Seas
associated with this swell will peak near 17 ft in the vicinity of
30N140W late tonight and early Thursday morning. Another cold
front will introduce another round of large NW swell which will
cause seas in this same area to peak near 15 ft on Saturday.

$$
cam