000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011507
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1330 UTC Tue Nov 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N99W to 11N115W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 09N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted north of 08N and east of 91W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of the monsoon trough
between 94W and 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern
North Pacific is supporting fresh north winds funneling through
the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Winds
will pulse over this area through Wednesday night. High pressure
will build southward over eastern Mexico Thursday. This will
increase winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which will likely
reach gale force Thursday night, and prevail through at least
Saturday night.

High pressure is building over the Pacific waters west of the Baja
California peninsula. This has helped freshen winds off the coast
of Baja California Norte with moderate winds prevailing off the
coast of Baja California Sur. Light winds prevail elsewhere over
the Pacific waters with light to gentle winds over the Gulf of
California. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, 6-8 ft over the Pacific waters off the coast of Baja
California, 4-6 ft elsewhere over the Pacific waters, and 2 ft or
less over the Gulf of California. A set of long period
northwesterly swell will build seas to 8 and 12 ft by Friday off
the coast of Baja California Norte on Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will remain in the vicinity of 10N through
Saturday. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of
10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. Seas in the 4 to
6 ft range prevail north of 10N, with 5-7 ft seas south of 10N.
These general conditions will prevail through Saturday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure continues to build across the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trade
winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W, with seas in the
8-11 ft range over this area. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds
with seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail. A fresh set of large long
period northwesterly swell will propagate into the northwest part
of the forecast area Wednesday morning. Seas associated to this
swell will peak near 20 ft late Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning.
     
$$
AL