000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010930
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 UTC Tue Nov 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N73W to 09N89W to 07N96W to
09N105W to 11N119W. The ITCZ extends from 11N128W to 09N138W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from
11N to 14N between 86W and 89W. Numerous moderate and isolated
strong convection is found from 08N to 10N between 84W and 88W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen
elsewhere from 07N to 10N between 78W and 103W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern
North Pacific will support fresh north winds funneling through
the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next
12 to 18 hours. Winds will begin to pulse again over this area
Wednesday night as high pressure builds southward over eastern
Mexico. This will increase winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
which will likely reach gale force Thursday night through
Saturday night.

Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail outside of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, except for light and variable winds with 1-2
ft seas across the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, the pres
gradient has begun to tighten W of the Baja peninsula. Moderate to
fresh NW to N winds are noted in this area as high pressure
builds eastward toward Baja California during the next 24 hours.
Winds off the coast of Baja California Norte will continue to
freshen tonight and Wednesday with seas building to 6-8 ft. NW
winds N of 28N and E of 117W are expected to become strong during
this time frame. Winds over the Gulf of California N of 30N will
become fresh Wednesday and Thursday. Long period NW swell will
cause seas to build to between 8 and 12 ft on Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will remain in the vicinity of 10N through
Saturday. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of
10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. 4 to 6 ft seas
will prevail north of 10N, with 5-7 ft seas south of 10N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is building eastward across the northern waters.
The pressure gradient between this ridge along 30N and lower
pressure near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds north of
the ITCZ to 20N west of 130W. Winds are fresh to strong from 16N
to 19N W of 135W. Winds will become fresh to strong from 14N to
17N between 126W and 132W in response to a surface trough
currently located from 09N127W to 14N123W moving slowly W into
this area. Lingering NW swell is maintaining 8-11 ft seas
generally west of a line from 30N116W to 14N119W to 11N140W. The
swell will slowly subside during the next couple days. A new set
of large long period NW swell will sweep into the northwest part
of the forecast area Wednesday morning. Seas will peak near 20 ft
late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
     
$$
cam