000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010223
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 10N87W to 07N96W to
10N108W. The ITCZ extends from 10N108W to 12N122W to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the
monsoon trough east of 86W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern
North Pacific will support fresh north winds funneling through
the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next
12to 18 hours. Winds will begin to pulse again over this area
Wednesday night as high pressure builds southward over eastern
Mexico. This will increase winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
and likely reach gale force Thursday night into Friday night.

Elsewhere, a relatively weak pres gradient prevails over the
area. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail outside
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except for light and variable winds
with 1-2 ft seas across the Gulf of California. High pressure
building eastward west of Baja California during the next 24
hours will tighten the pressure gradient and freshen winds off
the coast of Baja California Norte Wednesday with seas building
to 6-8 ft. Long period northwesterly swell will build seas to 8-
12 ft on Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will remain in the vicinity of 10N through
Saturday. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of
10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. 4 to 6 ft seas
will prevail north of 10N, with 5-7 ft seas south of 10N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is building eastward across the northern waters.
The pressure gradient between this ridge along 30N and lower
pressure near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds north of
the ITCZ to 20N west of 130W. Lingering northwest swell is over
the area with 8-11 ft seas generally west of a line from 30N116W
to 14N119W to 11N140W. The swell will slowly subside during the
next couple days. A new set of large long period northwesterly
swell will sweep into the northwest part of the forecast area
Wednesday morning. Seas will peak near 18-20 ft late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning.
     
$$
Mundell