000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312124
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N90W to 07N95W to
10N105W. The ITCZ extends from 10N105W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough
east of 90W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough over the eastern
North Pacific will support fresh north winds funneling through
the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tuesday
morning. Winds will begin to pulse over this area Wednesday
night as high pressure builds southward over eastern Mexico.
This will increase winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which
will likely reach gale force Thursday night into Friday morning.

Elsewhere, a relatively weak pres gradient prevails over the
area. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail outside
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, except for light and variable
winds with 1-2 ft seas in the Gulf of California. High pressure
building across the waters west of Baja California during the
next 24 hours will tighten the pressure gradient and freshen
winds off the coast of Baja California Norte by Wednesday with
seas building to 6-8 ft. Long period northwesterly swell will
build seas to 8-12 ft on Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will remain in the vicinity of 10N through
Saturday. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of
10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. 4 to 6 ft seas
will prevail north of 10N, with 5-7 ft seas south of 10N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure building across the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between a ridge along 30N and lower pressure near the
ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to
20N west of 130W. Lingering northwest swell from an old front is
across the waters, with 8-11 ft seas generally west of a line
from 30N116W to 15N121W to 15N128W to 12N140W. The swell will
slowly subside over the next couple of days. A new set of long
period northwesterly swell will sweep into the northwest part of
the forecast area Wednesday morning. Seas will peak near 18-20
ft late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
     
$$
Mundell