000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310931
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 UTC Mon Oct 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 11N84W. The monsoon
trough resumes from 08N95W to 12N119W to 1012 mb low pres near
08N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is found from 06N to 10N between 80W and 93W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 07N to 11N between 118W and
125W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between the high over eastern Mexico and
lower pres within the monsoon trough over the eastern North
Pacific is still supporting nocturnal pulses of strong northerly
winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The high will continue gradually weakening during the
next 24 hours. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will peak near
30 kt today and Tuesday during the late night and early morning
hours and diminish to around 20 kt during the afternoon. Peak
winds will diminish to around 25 kt on Wednesday and Thursday.
High pressure will build southward over eastern Mexico Thursday
and Friday. This will increase winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
which will likely reach gale force by early Friday morning.

Elsewhere, a relatively weak pres gradient prevails over the
area. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail outside of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, with light and variable winds and
seas 2 ft or less in the Gulf of California. High pres will build
across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula during the
next 24 hours, helping to freshen winds and build seas to 6-8 ft
by Wednesday. Strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected N
of 28N and E of 117W on Tuesday night. Winds will subside to
gentle to moderate and seas will subside to between 4 and 6 ft on
Wednesday and Thursday as the next cold front approaches. Long
period NW swell will cause seas to build to between 8 and 12 ft on
Friday and Saturday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will remain in the vicinity of 10N through
Friday night. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north
of 10N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 10N. Seas will be
between 4 and 6 ft N of the trough and 5 to 7 ft S of the trough.
Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters N of 10N
through the forecast period. Winds will be moderate to fresh over
the waters S of 10N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The cold front that was crossing the northern waters on Sunday
has dissipated. Associated large long period NW swell with max
seas currently to 13 ft near 30N130W will propagate S and E and
slowly subside during the next two days. Another cold front
accompanied by large NW swell is expected to reach the NW waters
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Seas area expected to peak near
22 ft near the far NW corner of this area late Wednesday into
early Thursday. Weak surface troughing N of the monsoon trough
will tighten the pressure gradient enough to generate NE winds of
20 to 25 kt from 16N to 19N W of 135W through Tuesday.
     
$$
cam