000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302130
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N102W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N102W to 10N120W to 08N132W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough east of
90W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side
of the ITCZ axis between 121W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a high over eastern Mexico and
lower pres within the monsoon trough over the eastern North
Pacific is supporting strong northerly winds funneling through
the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The area of high
pressure will weaken over the next 24 hours. Strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Monday, then will
pulse through the week afterwards. Winds will peak near 25 kt
during the late night and early morning hours and diminish to near
20 kt during the afternoon and early evening hours. High pressure
will build down eastern Mexico Thursday. This will increase winds
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching near gale, and perhaps even
minimal gale force, late Thursday night.

Elsewhere, a weak pres gradient prevails over the area. Light to
gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail outside of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec area, with light and variable winds and seas 2 ft
or less in the Gulf of California. High pres will build across
the waters west of the Baja California peninsula on Monday and
Tuesday. This will freshen winds and increase seas to 6-8 ft by
midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will remain in the vicinity of 10N through
Thursday night. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters
north of 10N with gentle to moderate winds south of 10N. Seas
range between 4 and 6 ft. Light to gentle winds will prevail over
the waters N of 10N through the forecast period. Winds will
generally be moderate to fresh over the waters S of 10N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front moving across the northern waters will weaken and
shift eastward through Tuesday. Large long period northwesterly
swell with seas to 14-15 ft will continue to propagate south and
east and slow;y subside during the next two days. Another cold
front with large northwesterly swell is expected to reach the
northwest waters late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Seas area
expected to peak near 22 ft over this area late Wednesday into
early Thursday.
     
$$
Mundell