000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301502 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1320 UTC Sun Oct 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N92W to 07.5N103W to 08N105W. The ITCZ extends from 08N105W to 10N116W to 08N125W to 08N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm south and 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high over eastern Mexico and lower pres within the monsoon trough over the eastern North Pacific is supporting strong northerly winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The area of high pressure will weaken over the next 24 hours. Strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Monday, then will pulse through the week afterwards. Winds will peak near 25 kt during the late night and early morning hours and diminish to near 20 kt during the afternoon and early evening hours. High pressure will build down eastern Mexico Thursday. This will increase winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching near gale, and perhaps even minimal gale force, late Thursday night. Elsewhere, a weak pres gradient prevails over the area. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, with light and variable winds and seas 2 ft or less in the Gulf of California. High pres will build across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. This will freshen winds and increase seas to 6-8 ft there by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will remain in the vicinity of 10N through Thursday night. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 10N with gentle to moderate winds south of 10N. Seas range between 4 and 6 ft. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters N of 10N through the forecast period. Winds will generally be moderate to fresh over the waters S of 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving across the northwest waters. This front will continue to shift eastward while weakening. The front is expected to wash out by Tuesday. The front has ushered in a set of large long period northwesterly swell. Latest altimeter pass indicate seas in the 15 ft range over the far northwest waters. The swell will continue to propagate south and east while slowly sub siding over the next several days. Another large northwesterly swell is expected to reach the northwest waters late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Seas area expected to peak near 22 ft over this area late Wednesday into early Thursday. $$ AL