000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300933
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 UTC Sun Oct 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N91W to 09N100W to
1012 mb low pres near 10N119W to 08N130W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 118W
and 131W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pres gradient between a high over eastern Mexico and lower
pres within the monsoon trough is generating fresh to strong N
winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The area of high pres will weaken during the next
few days, and peak winds will diminish across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec to around 25 kt on Tuesday and Wednesday. High pres
will rebuild over eastern Mexico on Thursday and Friday, which
should cause peak winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec to increase
to around 30 kt during that time frame.

Elsewhere, a weak pres gradient prevails over the area. Light to
gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas are observed outside of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec area, with light and variable winds and 1-2 ft seas in
the Gulf of California. Low pres near the northern Gulf of
California will cause winds N of 28N to become moderate to fresh
through Thursday night. Winds S of 28N will generally be NW and
moderate. High pres will build back across the waters W of the
Baja California peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. This will freshen
winds and increase seas to 6-8 ft there by midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will remain in the vicinity of 10N through
Thursday night. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters N
of 10N with gentle to moderate winds S of 10N. Seas in the
forecast waters range between 4 and 6 ft. Light to gentle winds
will prevail over the waters N of 10N through the forecast period.
Winds will generally be moderate to fresh for the waters S of 10N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Satellite imagery indicates the remnant low of Seymour has
weakened into a trough which extends from 21N122W to 27N120W. The
trough is still weakening the ridge that typically resides over
the area. A frontal trough over the NW waters will continue to
shift eastward across the waters N of 20N and weaken as well. The
boundary will introduce set of large long period NW swell into the
area. Associated seas are currently peaking near 16 ft over the
far NW waters. The swell will continue to propagate SE while
slowly subsiding through the week. Another large NW swell event is
expected to reach the NW waters late Tuesday, with seas peaking
near 20 ft in the far NW waters early on Thursday.
     
$$
cam