000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300230
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N130W. The ITCZ
extends from 12N137W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection
from 08N to 10N between 119W and 122W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting fresh
to strong northerly winds funneling through the Chivela pass
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scatterometer data earlier today
showed 30 kt max winds. The area of high pressure will slowly
weaken over the next several days. There is a slight chance with
an added component of nocturnal downslope flow that winds may
reach minimal gale force early Sunday. The area of high pressure
will weaken further the next two days, and peak winds will
diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to around 25 kt.

Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient prevails over the area.
Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas are outside of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec area, with light and variable winds and 1-2 ft seas
in the Gulf of California. High pressure will build back across
the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. This will
freshen winds and increase seas to 6-8 ft there by midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 10N with
gentle to moderate winds south of 10N. Seas are 4-6 ft over the
forecast waters. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the
waters north of 10N through the forecast period. Winds will
increase to moderate to fresh over the waters south of 10N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Scatterometer data shows the remnant low of Seymour located near
24N122W, which has disrupted the ridge that typically prevails
over the area. The low will dissipate Sunday with the ridge
slowly building in through the week. A cold front over the
northwest waters will continue to shift eastward across the
waters north of 20N and weaken. The front will usher in a set of
large long period northwest swell into the area. Associated seas
will peak near 16 ft over the far northwest waters late tonight.
The swell will continue to spread southeastward while slowly
subsiding through the week. Another large northwesterly swell
event is expected to reach the northwest waters late Tuesday,
with seas peaking near 18 ft early Thursday.
     
$$
Mundell