000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N100W. The ITCZ continues to 10N117W to 09N125W where it fractures, to extend from 14N131W to 11N140W. No significant convection associated with the convergence zone. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scatterometer data earlier today showed 30 kt max winds. The area of high pressure will slowly weaken over the next several days. There is a slight chance with an added component of nocturnal downslope flow that winds may reach minimal gale force late tonight. As the area of high pressure further weakens the next two days, and peak winds will diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 20-25 kt. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient prevails over the area. Light to gentle winds are outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, with light and variable winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, and 2 ft or less in the Gulf of California. High pressure will build back across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. This will freshen winds and increase seas to 6-8 ft there by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 10N with gentle to moderate winds south of 10N. Seas are 4-6 ft over the forecast waters. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N through the forecast period. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh over the waters south of 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scatterometer data shows the remnant low of Seymour located near 24N122W, which has disrupted the ridge that typically prevails over the area. The low will dissipate Sunday with the ridge slowly building in through the week. A cold front over the northwest waters will continue to shift eastward across the waters north of 20N and weaken. The front will usher in a set of large, long period northwesterly swells into the area. Combined seas associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft over the far northwest waters late tonight. The swell will continue to spread southeastward while slowly subsiding through the week. Another large northwesterly swell event is expected to reach the far northwest waters late Tuesday into early Wednesday, with seas peaking near 18 ft late Wednesday into early Thursday. $$ Mundell