000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291513 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1424 UTC Sat Oct 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...The pressure gradient between high pressure across eastern Mexico and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting minimal gale force winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The area of high pressure will slowly weaken over the next several days. This will loosen the pressure gradient enough to bring winds below gale force this afternoon. There is a slight chance that the added component of nocturnal downslope flow that winds can once again reach minimal gale force late tonight. As the area of high pressure further weakens Sunday, winds will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the 20-25 kt range. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08.5N90W to 09N100W where it transitions to ITCZ which then extends to 11N116W to 10N122W where it fractures. The ITCZ continues from 13N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough east of 88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 130W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Outside of this area, the remnant low of Hurricane Seymour is centered near 24N122W. This continues to disrupt the high pressure ridge which usually prevails over this area and is creating a weak pressure gradient over the area. Light to gentle winds prevail outside of the Gulf of Tehunatepec area, with light and variable winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, and 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California. By Sunday afternoon winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to 20 to 25 kt. Winds will continue in the 20-25 kt range Monday, then pulse the next several days. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will peak near 25 kt during the late evening and early morning hours...and diminish to near 20 kt during the afternoon and early evening hours. The remnant low of Seymour will dissipate over the next 24 hours and high pressure will start to build back across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. This will freshen winds and increase seas to the 6-8 ft range off Baja California norte by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 10N with gentle to moderate winds south of 10N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the forecast waters. The light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters north of 10N through the forecast period. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh over the waters south of 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Seymour is located near 24N122W, and is disrupting the high pressure ridge that typically prevails over the area. The remnant low is expected to dissipate Sunday with the ridge slowly building in through the week. A cold front over the far northwest waters will continue to shift eastward across the waters north of 20N while weakening. The front is expected to wash out early next week. This front will usher in a set of large, long period northwesterly swells into the area. Combined seas associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft over the far northwest waters late tonight. The swell will continue to spread southeastward while slowly subsiding through the week. Another large northwesterly swell is expected to reach the far northwest waters late Tuesday into early Wednesday, with seas peaking near 18 ft late Wednesday into early Thursday. $$ AL