000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290225 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...a high pressure ridge across eastern Mexico combined with lower pressures south of 12N near the monsoon trough is producing a tight pressure gradient over the area. As a result, strong northerly winds will continue to pulse to minimal gale force through early Saturday. The gradient will weaken thereafter, allowing for winds to remain below gale force through early next week. Seas will build to 12 to 13 ft during the period of strongest winds late tonight. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N92W to 09N98W to 10N116W to 09N122W, then resumes from 14N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm north of the trough axis between 133W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details on a persistent Gulf of Tehuantepec high wind event. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Winds will slowly diminish this weekend as the pressure gradient weakens. 5 to 7 ft seas will subside to 4 to 5 ft Saturday, then will build to 6 to 9 ft in NW swell Sunday as a cold front moves across northern waters. The front will slowly weaken west of Baja Norte early next week, with swells decaying by Tuesday. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds are expected tonight as an elongated northwest to southeast trough lingers near the northern gulf. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop north of 30N early Saturday. Winds on the southeast side of the low are forecast to pulse to moderate to fresh through Monday. 1 to 2 ft seas will build to 4 to 7 ft as the winds increase, with 2 to 4 ft seas expected over the southern half through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle west to northwest winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough except for moderate offshore winds in nocturnal drainage flow Saturday night through Tuesday. Moderate southwest winds south of the monsoon trough will increase this weekend through early next week. 4 to 6 ft seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft this weekend, building early next week to 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Seymour is located near 23N121W with fresh winds in the northeast quadrant and seas to 7-8 ft in mixed swell. Winds and seas will continue to diminish tonight, with a remnant trough expected by Saturday night. A cold front extending from 30N135W to 29N140W will quickly move across the northern waters and usher in a reinforcing set of northwest swells with seas building to 12 to 15 ft along 30N early Sunday. Model guidance shows another front with an even more impressive set of northwest swell arriving Tuesday night. Otherwise, moderate trades south of 20N will increase slightly across the west central waters Sunday into early next week as high pressure builds in behind the next front, while a trough of low pressure along the convergence zone moves west toward 140W. $$ Mundell