000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282141
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...a high pres ridge across
eastern Mexico combined with lower pressures south of 12N near
the monsoon trough is producing a tight pressure gradient over
the area. As a result, strong northerly winds will continue to
pulse to minimal gale force through early Saturday. The gradient
will weaken slightly thereafter, allowing for winds to remain
below gale force through early next week. Seas will build to 12
to 13 ft during the period of strongest winds late tonight.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N104W to
09N122W to 14N130W to a surface low near 13N134W. ITCZ axis
extends from 13N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection
within 90 nm southwest of the low near 13N134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the special features section for details on a persistent Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap event.

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the waters offshore of
the Baja California peninsula. Winds will slowly diminish this
weekend, as a dying cold front moves E and the pres gradient
weakens. 5 to 7 ft seas will subside to 4 to 5 ft Saturday, then
will build to 6 to 9 ft in NW swell Sunday as another cold front
moves across the northern waters. The front will slowly weaken
west of Baja Norte early next week, with swells decaying Tuesday.
 
In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds are expected
today as an elongated northwest to southeast trough lingers
across the gulf. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop
in the far northern Gulf of California early Saturday. Winds on
the southeast side of the low are forecast to pulse to moderate
to fresh through early next week. 1 to 2 ft seas will build to 4
to 7 ft as the winds increase, with 2 to 4 ft seas expected over
the southern half through early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds will prevail north of
the monsoon trough except moderate offshore winds from nocturnal
drainage flow, Saturday night through early next week. Moderate
southwest winds south of the monsoon trough will increase this
weekend through early next week. 4 to 6 ft seas will subside to
3 to 5 ft this weekend, building early next week to 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Seymour is located near 23N122W with fresh to
strong winds in the northeast quadrant and seas to 10 ft in
mixed swell. Winds and seas will continue to rapidly diminish
tonight, with a remnant trough expected by early Sunday.

A dissipating cold front extends from 30N122W to 27N125W. 8 to
10 ft seas are located west of a line from 30N119W to 15N129W to
10N140W. Another cold front entering the discussion area from
30N138W to 29N140W will quickly move across the northern waters
and usher in a reinforcing set of northwest swells with seas
building to 12 to 15 ft along 30N early Sunday. Model guidance
shows yet another front with an even more impressive set of
northwest swell arriving by the middle of next week.

Otherwise, moderate trades south of 20N will increase locally to
fresh across the west central waters Sunday into early next week
as high pressure builds in behind the next front, while a trough
of low pressure along the ITCZ moves toward 140W.
     
$$
Mundell