000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241505 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1346 UTC Mon Oct 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Seymour is located near 15.2N 109.8W at 1500 UTC, moving west- northwest or 290 deg at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Numerous strong convection was noted within 60 NM of the center of Seymour while scattered moderate to strong convection was noted elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 107W and 111W. Conditions remain favorable for continued intensification during the next few days as Seymour continues moving W-NW to NW. Although the forecast track keeps Seymour just outside of the Mexican offshore zones, fresh to strong winds and seas in the 8-10 ft range are expected to affect the southern part of zones PMZ023 and PMZ025 through late today, then PMZ015 tonight and Tue. For additional details on Seymour, refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25. A gale warning will remain in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next 48 hours, as strong northerly winds will persist throughout the week across this region. By Thursday night into early Friday morning, the aerial extent of the gale force winds will increase as high pres builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. At that time, seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N90W to 10N102W. It resumes from low pres near 16.5N118W to low pres near 14N127W to 11N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm south and 60 nm north of the monsoon trough between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 98W and 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. High pres of 1017 mb is centered near 25N124W and is producing light anticyclonic winds across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula. Combined seas there are 4-6 ft across southern portions of the peninsula, and 5 to 8 ft N of 27N due to long period NW swell moving into the region. Seas here will subside below 8 ft by Tuesday. The high pres will shift slightly N-NE during the next 24 hours. This will result in moderate NW winds across the offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of California, mainly gentle southerly winds prevail across the north half, while gentle N to NW winds prevail across far southern portions. This general wind pattern will persist through the day. By this evening, gentle to moderate NW winds will dominate all the waters S of 27N extending SE to between Los Cabos and Las Tres Marias Islands. On Tuesday as the high center shifts farther N-NE, NW winds will spill down the entire length of the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours and diminish to near 15 kt during the afternoon and early evening hours. Elsewhere gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted S of 06N, while gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail N of 06N, with the exception of moderate to fresh southerly winds from 05N to 07N E of 80W. Combined seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, primarily in long period SW swell which is dominating the offshore waters. These marine conditions will persist over the few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak NE to SW ridge dominates most of the north waters N of 20N, and is producing mainly light and variable winds between 20N and 30N. Outside Seymour, two weak low pres centers of 1010 mb are noted along the monsoon trough near 16.5N118W and near 14N127W. Seas of 8-10 ft in NW swell are noted N of 15N between 117W and 133W. Seas over this area are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft by Tuesday afternoon. A cold front over the NW waters will reach from 30N132W to beyond 26N140W by Tue night. Winds will increase SW to 20- 25 kt within 90 nm ahead of the front with seas building to 8-10 ft across most of the NW waters by Tue. $$ AL