000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221008 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 UTC Sat Oct 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The latest computer model guidance suggests that winds have likely increased to 30 to 40 kt already tonight, and will diminish shortly to 30 to 35 kt before sunrise and persist to near noon today before falling into the 25-30 kt range through this evening. A high pressure ridge across eastern Mexico behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front will prevail for the next few days and maintain strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec that will increase to at or just below gale force each late night through early morning through at least Tue. Clusters of moderate to strong convection noted 300-450 nm southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a broad area of low pressure located near 10.5N99.5W. Satellite imagery indicates clusters of moderate to strong convection within about 270 nm across the NW quadrant of the low, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to 13N between 95W and 103W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance over the next few days, and a tropical depression may form early next week while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13.5N88W to low pres near 10.5N99.5W to 14N112.5W to low pres near 13.5N115.5W to low pres near 10.5N128.5W to beyond 12.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strongconvection is noted from 02.5N to 07N between 77W and 82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm N and 180 nm S of trough between 121W and 132W. from 08N to 11.5N between 120W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Northerly gap wind flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to persist throughout most of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, a sub-tropical ridge axis extends from NW to SE across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur near 22N115W. Light to gentle NW winds are expected across the Pacific watersof baja California through Sunday before weak troughing develop just offshore of Baja California Sur to produce light and variable winds. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell are expected through early Sun before seas build to 5-8 ft Sun through Mon in a new pulse of NW swell. Inside the Gulf of California, Gentle to moderate NW winds this morning are forecast to become light and variable today, then light southerly flow is expected across the entire gulf waters late Sat and Sun. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere within 250 nm of the Mexican coast W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun, except moderate E to SE winds are expected across the outer waters between Acapulco and Cabo Corrientes due to the current low pres SW of Tehuantepec moving across the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate W to SW winds are noted per overnight scatterometer data S of 06N, while gentle to moderate W to NW winds are N of 06N. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, primarily in long-period SW swell are expected across the offshore waters for the next 3 to 5 days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates most of the north waters N of 15N W of 115W. The pres gradient between the ridge and lower pres in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is resulting in an area of moderate to fresh winds between 14N and 20N W of 120W based on overnight scatterometer data. Seas in this area are 6-8 ft and not expected to fluctuate much through Sun. A cold front is expected to approach 30N140W tonight while gradually dissipating through late Saturday. A new pulse of long period NW swell will move out ahead of the front and propagate SE across the NW waters Sat and Sun, reaching the waters W of Baja on Sun. Another cold front will be near 30N140W on Monday and will be reinforcing by a second cold front reaching the same area on Tue. The merging cold front is forecast to extend from 30N135W to beyond 27N140W by late Tue. $$ Stripling