000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172110 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1927 UTC Mon Oct 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave axis extends from 09N113W to 15N111W. Convection associated with this wave remains confined S of the wave and S of the monsoon trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Central America near 13N87W to 12N96W to 1008 mb low pres near 10N102W, then resumes near 13N106W to 10N114W to 15N126W to 1008 mb low pres near 14N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within 210 nm either side of the monsoon trough axis E of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pres ridge extends SE from 32N137W to near the Revillagigedo Islands at 18N110W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are occurring within 200 nm of the coast of Baja California N of 25N. Moderate N winds are present elsewhere W of the Baja California. The combination of winds and NW swell support seas of 9 to 11 ft W of Baja California Norte. NW swell of 7 to 9 ft extends to offshore Baja California Sur. The winds will lessen slightly on Tuesday as the ridge shifts to the NE. The large swell will continue through Wednesday. Winds will be light to moderate Thursday and Friday as the ridge to the N remains weak in response to an approaching cold front. Fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decrease to moderate this afternoon, then pulse to fresh each night through Wednesday night. A strong area of high pres behind a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to strong N to NE Tehuantepec gap winds Thursday night, then Gale force Friday through Monday. Model guidance suggests that winds could increase to a strong gale Saturday through Sunday night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Surface troughing over the Baja peninsula is promoting a light wind regime over the Gulf of California. Seas are generally 2 ft or less there, and around 4-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California Wednesday night through Thursday night as the pressure gradient tightens between the high pres ridge W of Baja and low pres over Arizona. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are S of the monsoon trough. Mainly light to gentle winds continue N of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range N of the monsoon trough in a mix of NW and SW swell. Seas of 5-7 ft are S of the monsoon trough in primarily SW swell. These conditions are forecast to prevail through Friday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1008 mb low pres is centered near 14N131W. This system has a low potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next few days as it moves W to WSW. The pres gradient between the high pres ridge NW of the Revillagigedo Islands and the low is generating fresh to strong winds in the NW semicircle within 240 nm of the low, with seas of 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail between the monsoon trough and the ridge the next couple of days...except light and variable winds along the ridge axis. A NW swell event that has been affecting the area the last few days is being reinforced by another batch of NW swell entering the NW waters. Swell greater than 8 ft covers the area N of 10N and W of 111W. This swell will persist into the middle of the week. Elsewhere, the combination of SW winds S of the monsoon trough and NW swell will support seas of 8-10 ft mainly from 03N and 12N between 96W and 125W through mid week. SW swell of 8-9 ft will propagate NE between 95W and 115W and cause seas S of 02N to build to between 8 and 9 ft Tuesday through Thursday. $$ cam