000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171531
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1530 UTC Mon Oct 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave axis extends along 112W between 10N and 14N.
Convection near this wave is associated with the monsoon trough.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Central America near 12N87W to a
1009 mb low pres near 10N100W to 10N102W, then resumes near
12N107W to 10N113W to a 1008 mb low pres near 14N130W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to
14N E of 102W, and within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough
axis between 108W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pres ridge extends SE from high pres northwest of the area
to near the Revillagigedo Islands at 18N110W. Fresh to strong NW
winds are within 150 nm of the coast of Baja California Norte N of
28N. Moderate to fresh NW winds are elsewhere W of the Baja
California. The combination of winds and NW swell support seas of
9 to 11 ft west of Baja California Norte. NW swell of 7 to 9 ft
extends to offshore Baja California Sur. The winds will lessen
slightly on Tuesday as the ridge shifts to the NE. The large
swell will continue through Wednesday.

Fresh to strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
decrease to moderate this afternoon, then pulsing to fresh each
night through Wednesday night. A strong area of high pressure
behind a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to
strong N to NE Tehuantepec gap winds Thursday night, then Gale
force Friday. Model guidance suggests that winds could increase to
a strong gale Friday night.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Surface troughing over
the Baja peninsula is promoting a light wind regime over the Gulf
of California. Seas are generally 2 ft or less there, and around
4-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds may develop over the
northern Gulf of California Wednesday night through Thursday night
as the pressure gradient tightens between the high pressure ridge
W of Baja and low pressure over Arizona.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds are S of the monsoon trough. Mainly
light to gentle winds continue N of the monsoon trough. Seas are
in the 4-6 ft range N of the monsoon trough in a mix of NW and SW
swell. Seas of 5-7 ft are S of the monsoon trough in primarily SW
swell. These conditions are forecast to prevail through the
middle of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 14N130W. This system has
the potential to become a tropical cyclone over the next few days
as it moves west to west-southwestward. The pres gradient between
the high pressure ridge NW of the Revillagigedo Islands and this
low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW semicircle of
the low, with seas of 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds
will prevail between the monsoon trough and the ridge the next
couple of days...except light and variable winds along the ridge
axis. A NW swell event that has been affecting the area the last
few days is being reinforced by another batch of NW swell pushing
over our NW waters today. Swell greater than 8 ft covers the area
N of 10N and W of 111W. This swell will persist into the middle of
the week. Elsewhere, the combination of SW winds S of the monsoon
trough and NW swell will support seas of 8-10 ft mainly from 04N
and 10N between 96W and 125W through mid week. SW swell of 8-9 ft
will propagate NE between 95W and 115W and cause seas S of 02N to
build to between 8 and 9 ft Tuesday through Thursday.

$$
LATTO