000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 905 UTC Mon Oct 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave extends from 07N112W to 16N112W. There is little convection associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Central America near 15N93W to 09N100W to 09N111W to 1010 mb low pres near 14N129W to 12N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 180 nm either side of the trough axis between 93W and 123W and also between 130W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Low pres centered is embedded within the monsoon trough near 14N129W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 12N to 18N between 123W and 130W. This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it moves W during the next 48 hours. A high pres ridge extends SE from 1018 mb high pres near 26N127W to near the Revillagigedo Islands at 19N112W. Moderate NW winds prevail over the coastal waters W of Baja California. NW swell of 7 to 10 ft will continue to affect areas W of Baja California through Wednesday. A weakening cold front stretches from 32N127W to 26N140W. A new area of high pres will build SE behind the front from the NE Pacific tonight through Monday. This will increase NW winds W of Baja California Norte to 20-25 kt with seas building to 11 ft. The ridge will weaken slightly mid week which will lessen winds to under 20 kt. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds will pulse to 20-25 kt and seas will build to 8 ft tonight and Mon. The pres gradient over the Gulf of Mexico will lessen Monday evening through Wednesday, allowing winds to subside to below 20 kt. High pres building over the Gulf will cause Tehuantepec winds back to fresh to strong Thursday and Friday morning. Then, stronger high pres building in behind a cold front N of the area will bring Gale force N to NE winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Friday through at least Sunday. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Surface troughing over the Baja peninsula is promoting a light wind regime over the Gulf of California. Seas are generally 2 ft or less there, and around 4-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California Thursday and Thursday night in response to a increasing difference in pres between a high pres ridge W of Baja and low pres over Arizona. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Mainly light to gentle winds continue N of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in a mix of NW and SW swell. Freshening S winds S of the monsoon trough and cross-equatorial SW swell will cause seas to gradually increase to near 7 ft during the first half of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pres gradient between the high pres ridge NW of the Revillagigedo Islands and W of Baja and low pres mentioned in the special features section is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW semicircle of the low, with seas of 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail between the monsoon trough and the ridge. Light and variable winds are noted along the ridge axis. A robust NW swell event continues with seas 8-12 ft or greater generally N of 10N and W of 114W. An area of high pres will generate moderate to fresh NE winds N of 10N W of 120W Monday night through Wednesday. Reinforcing NW swell will arrive in these waters Monday and Monday night, then begin to subside by mid week. Elsewhere, the combination of SW winds S of the monsoon trough and NW swell will cause seas to build to 8-10 ft mainly from 02N and 10N between 90W and 125W tonight through mid week. SW swell of 8-9 ft will propagate NE between 95W and 115W and cause seas S of to build to between 8 and 9 ft S of the equator Monday night through Thursday. $$ FORMOSA