000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162138 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1925 UTC Sun Oct 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Low pres centered near 16N127W is embedded within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 12N to 17N between 124W and 129W. This system has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it moves W during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave extends from a 1012 mb low near 10N110W to 12N109W. There is little convection associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Central America near 15N93W to 09N101W to 1012 mb low pres near 10N110W to another 1008 mb low near 16N127W to 11N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 150 nm either side of the trough axis between 93W and 124W and also between 129W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pres ridge extends E from 26N140W to W of Baja California Sur at 27N119W, then SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands at 18N110W. Moderate NW winds prevail over the coastal waters W of Baja California. NW swell of 7 to 10 ft will continue to affect areas to the W of Baja California through Wednesday. A new area of high pres will build SE from the NE Pacific tonight through Monday. This will increase NW winds W of Baja California Norte to 20-25 kt with seas building to 11 ft. The ridge will weaken slightly mid week which will lessen winds to under 20 kt. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds will pulse to 20-25 kt and seas will build to 8 ft tonight. The pres gradient over the Gulf of Mexico will lessen Monday through Wednesday, allowing winds to subside to below 20 kt. High pres building over the Gulf will cause Tehuantepec winds back to fresh to strong Thursday and Friday morning. Then, stronger high pres building in behind a cold front N of the area will bring Gale force N to NE Tehuantepec winds late Friday and into the next weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Surface troughing over the Baja peninsula is promoting a light wind regime over the Gulf of California. Seas are generally 2 ft or less there, and around 4-6 ft elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Mainly light to gentle winds continue N of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in a mix of NW and SW swell. Freshening S winds S of the monsoon trough and cross-equatorial SW swell will cause seas to gradually increase to near 7 ft during the first half of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pres gradient between the high pres ridge NW of the Revillagigedo Islands and W of Baja and low pres mentioned in the special features section is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW semicircle of the low, with seas of 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail between the monsoon trough and the ridge. Light and variable winds are noted along the ridge axis. A robust NW swell event continues with seas 8-12 ft or greater generally north of 10N and west of 114W. A cold front crosses the far NW waters from 32N130W to 28N140W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring N of the front. The front will dissipate by Tuesday as high pres N of the front builds SE. This new area of high pressure will generate moderate to fresh NE winds N of 10N W of 120W Monday night through Wednesday. Reinforcing NW swell will arrive in these waters Monday and Monday night, then begin to subside by mid week. Elsewhere, the combination of SW winds S of the monsoon trough and NW swell will cause seas to build to 8-10 ft mainly from 02N and 10N between 95W and 110W tonight through mid week. SW swell of 8-9 ft will propagate NE across the equator between 90W and 115W Monday night through Thursday. $$ cam