000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160227 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2318 UTC Sat Oct 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Low pressure centered near 15N122W is embedded within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated to this low is noted from 13N to 18N between 120W and 125W. There is currently a medium probability that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as it moves westward. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W between 05N and 15N. There is limited convection associated to this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N112W to low pres near 15N122W to 11N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough west of 124W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure centered near 26N132W extends a ridge westward to offshore Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the coastal waters offshore Baja California. Winds in the 20-25 kt range prevail over the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in the forecast waters off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, 8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next several nights, peaking during the late night and early morning hours and reaching a minimum during the afternoon and early evening hours. The northwesterly swell over the coastal waters off the Baja California peninsula will keep waves at 8 ft or higher through the first part of the week. The swell will subside around midweek, with combined seas falling below 8 ft midweek toward the end of the week. High pressure over the northern waters will build over the weekend into early next week. This will help strengthen winds over the coastal waters off Baja California Norte early next week. The ridge will then retreat slightly westward which will help loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds over this area by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwesterly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Mainly light to gentle winds continue north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in a mix of northwest and southwest swell. Winds will freshen south of the monsoon trough early next week into the middle of the week. Seas will gradually increase to near 7 ft through the early to middle part of the week with the assistance of the southerly wind surge south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure centered near 26N132W extends a ridge westward to off shore Baja California Norte. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the area of low pressure mentioned inn the special feature is supporting fresh to strong winds over the northwestern semicircle of the low. Elsewhere moderate to fresh winds prevail between the monsoon trough and the ridge. Light and variable winds prevail within the high pressure center with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis. A large northwesterly swell is resulting in an area of seas 8 ft or greater generally north of 10N and west of 114W. High pressure centered over the northern waters will become absorbed into high pressure ridging building over the area. The northwesterly swell will keep the large area of combined seas greater than 8 ft through early next week while slowly subsiding. Seas will start to fall below 8 ft over this area midweek. $$ AL