000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150233 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 039 UTC Sat Oct 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave extends from 09N103W to 15N101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with the wave is seen from 13N to 15N between 98W and 101W. The wave is situated on the western edge of deep tropical moisture. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from W of Nicaragua at 11N88W to 08N101W to 11N109W, then resumes from 16N111W to 1009 mb low pres near 15N120W to 12N123W to 10N132W. The ITCZ continues from 10N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with the low is seen from 11N to 18N between 115W and 120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough axis E of 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Near gale winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec for one more night tonight, then decrease. High pres is shifting NE away from the Gulf of Mexico, which will reduce wind funneling and pressure forcing through the Tehuantepec Gap. However, fresh to locally strong Tehuantepec winds augmented by nocturnal drainage flow will ramp up during each morning through the middle of next week. Strong high pres building in behind the next cold front could cause winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec to increase to near gale force once again by next weekend. Elsewhere, a high pres ridge extending SE from a 1022 mb high near 27N129W to near the Revillagigedo Islands at 19N112W. This ridge is generating moderate NW to N winds just W of the Baja California coast, with seas ranging primarily between 5 to 7 ft. The ridge will weaken tonight as a cold front enters the far NW corner of the forecast area, but will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja through the upcoming weekend. Long period NW swell, generated by strong winds associated with a storm system N of the cold front will continue advancing from the waters off Baja California Norte to the waters off Baja California Sur tonight. Seas will build to between 10 and 11 ft for the waters W of Baja California N of 26N Sunday morning. A high pres ridge will build N of the area by Sunday night. This will result in winds increasing to as high as 25 kt along the Baja coast N of 28N from Sunday night through Monday night. Seas as high as 11 ft will be possible for the waters adjoining the northern portion of Baja California Norte Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This area includes forecast zone PMZ009. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough...including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Mainly light to gentle winds are observed N of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 6 ft S of the monsoon trough are mainly associated with long period SW swell. Winds S of the monsoon trough may increase to moderate to locally fresh by Monday. This will cause seas from 01N to 10N between 95W and 123W to build to between 8 and 9 ft by Monday evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A elongated area of low pres is centered near 15N120W. The estimated central pressure of the low is 1009 mb. An area of fresh winds N of the low between 15N and 21N have caused seas to build to 8 ft NE of the low within 180 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with the low is seen from 11N to 18N between 115W and 120W. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days as it moves WNW at around 15 mph. Long period NW swell are spreading across the NW waters, causing seas to build to as high as 13 ft in the vicinity of 30N140W. The swell have been generated by a strong storm system well to the N of the area. A cold front attending this storm system will weaken considerably as it enters the NW corner of our area tonight. Stronger winds behind the front will remain N of 30N. The long period swell event will cause seas to build to between 8 and 12 ft across the waters N of a line from 20N111W to 09N125W to 10N140W by Sunday evening. A reinforcing batch of swell of 8 to 10 ft is expected to cross SE into the forecast waters from 30N on Sunday and Sunday night, and then again on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect the highest seas for all of these swell events over the NW waters. $$ cam