000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102213 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2210 UTC Mon Oct 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure ridge extending southward across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico continues to produce a fairly strong pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and will persist over the next several days. This will maintain strong northerly gap winds spilling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next few days, with nocturnal drainage effects resulting in increased winds overnight to gale force through Tuesday morning. Winds have briefly diminished to 25-30 kt this afternoon but will pulse to gale force again around midnight tonight through Tuesday morning and then repeat the cycle Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Beyond Wednesday, strong to near gale force winds will persist through mid week, with strongest winds occurring during the overnight hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N81W to developing low pres near 10N94W to low pres 13N119W to low pres near 11N126W to 08N134W to beyond 10N140W. widely scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 05.5N to 09N between 79W and 86W. Scattered strong convection is occurring from 10N to 15N between 94W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 210 nm N and 120 nm S of the trough and lows between 114W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak sub-tropical ridge axis extends northwest to southeast across the local Pacific waters from a 1018 mb high near 26N132W to near 21N109W off the southern tip of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle northerly breezes will persist across the region north of 20N through Tuesday, including the Gulf of California on the eastern periphery of the weak ridge. Winds off the coast of the Baja California peninsula will increase to 15 to 20 kt by Wednesday north of Cabo San Lazaro between high pressure to the northwest and troughing over northwest Mexico. Elsewhere a light to gentle breeze, and 3 to 5 ft seas will persist. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring from the Gulf of Tehuantepecto downwind to near 10N98W, where broad low pressure is developing along the monsoon trough near 10N94W. This active weather will shift westward and across 100W through this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwest winds persist from 05N to the monsoon trough which is meandering east to west along roughly 10N to 11N, with a light to gentle southwest breeze farther south toward the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of the monsoon trough largely in long period southwest swell. Little change is expected with these observations through Wednesday. Clusters of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore of Central America from 05.5N to 09N between 79W and 86W. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse higher at night across the Papagayo region but will not extend more than 90 nm offshore. Broad low pressure associated with the monsoonal circulation across the SW Caribbean and Central America will produce light to moderate wavering NW to N winds from Guatemala to offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo for the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1018 mb high pressure centered near 26N132W will shift N to near 30N130W on Tuesday and maintain the weak ridge extending SEto offshore of Manzanillo. A weakening front has stalled from 30N137W to 27N140W with winds less than 20 kt on either side. Moderate NW swell generated behind this front has spread southeastward and well E of the stalled front, where seas are8- 10 ft NW of line from 30N130W to 19N140W based on afternoon altimeter date. The swell across this area will diminish in size through Tuesday, and decay to less than 8 ft by early on Wednesday. Areas of moderate to fresh trade winds persist north of the monsoon trough to near 20N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Increasingly favorable conditions aloft are expected to provide weak low pressure systems currently along the monsoon trough, one near 13N119W and the other one near 11N126W, to improve in organization during the next 48 hours, as they shift W-NW to NW. The pressure gradient between these lows and the ridge to the N will induce freshening winds across the N semicircles of these lows to induce increasing winds and seas to 20-25 kt and 8-10 ft. $$ Stripling