000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070230
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 07 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends along 10N86W to 10N93W to 14N110W to
beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to
10N86W to 11N114W to 11N128W to 11N140W, and elsewhere within 
75 nm either side of a line from 14N110W to 13N130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from nw to se across the
Pacific waters just w of the offshore zones w of the Baja
Peninsula. Moderate to fresh nw flow is observed n of 30N beyond
150 nm w of Baja with combined seas of 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to
moderate nw to n flow is observed elsewhere across the open
Pacific waters w of 110W. The pressure gradient will continue to
relax late tonight into Fri, with the nw flow diminishing to 5-
10 kt, with associated seas forecast at 3 to 6 ft everywhere w
of 105W by late Fri. Little change then expected through next
Tue. 

Moderate to occasionally fresh nw winds expected across the Gulf
of California n of 30N through early Sat with building to about
5 ft, then winds will diminish to a gentle nw flow on Sat night.
Light to gentle nw flow is expected across the remainder of the
Gulf of California through early next week.

Light and variable winds expected elsewhere within 250 nm of
the Mexican coast through the weekend, with combined seas of 3 to
5 ft primarily due the long-period sw swell.

Fresh n winds expected early Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front, then increasing to strong on
Fri night through Sat afternoon, further increasing to near gale
conditions on Sat evening, with minimal gale force expected
on Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds are expected through Fri night n
of the monsoon trough which is meandering e to w along about
11N, while moderate sw flow is expected s of the monsoon trough
through the upcoming weekend. Winds will become light and
variable across the waters n of 11N on Sat, with little change
except moderate e flow possible across the Gulf of Papagayo on
Sun night. Combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, primarily in long-period
sw swell is expected across the offshore waters for the next 3
to 5 days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends from 32N133W to 14N114W. Moderate ne trades and
5 to 8 ft seas are expected through Sat s of the ridge and n of
the relatively lower pressure within the monsoon trough.
Combined seas of 6 to 9 ft will gradually subside through Sat.
The ridge will reorientate from 32N132W to 24N140W on Sat night
with light anticyclonic winds across the area. The ridge will
shift e and weaken on Sun allowing a cold front to reach from
32N137W to 28N140W. The front will quickly stall and gradually
dissipate across the far nw waters through the middle of next
week, but the associated nw swell will build combined seas to 7
to 10 ft nw of line from 32N130W to 25N140W on Tue night.
      
$$
Nelson