000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 06 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends along 12N86W to 11N102W to 14N114W
to 12N125W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from
05N77W to 11N95W to 14N117W to 10N132W to 11N140W.

Isolated moderate and strong convection is observed just off the
central Pacific coast of Mexico within 90 nm either side of a
line from 14N95W to 17N104W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from nw to se across the
Pacific waters just w of the offshore zones w of the Baja
Peninsula. Fresh nw flow is observed n of 30N beyond 180 nm w of
Baja with combined seas of 7 to 10 ft. Moderate nw to n flow is
observed elsewhere across the open Pacific waters w of 110W. The
pressure gradient will relax tonight into Fri, with the nw flow
diminishing to 5-10 kt, with associated seas forecast at 3 to 6
ft everywhere w of 105W by late Fri. Little change then expected
through next Tue. 

Moderate to occasionally fresh nw winds expected across the
Gulf of California n of 30N through early Sat, then diminishing
to a gentle nw flow on Sat night. Light to gentle nw flow is
expected across the remainder of the Gulf of California through
early next week.

Light and variable winds expected elsewhere within 250 nm of
the Mexican coast through the weekend, with combined seas of 3 to
5 ft primarily due the long-period sw swell.

Fresh n winds expected early Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front, then increasing to strong on
Fri night through late Sat, further increasing to near gale
early Sat night, with minimal gale force early Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds are expected through Fri night n
of the monsoon trough which is meandering e to w along about
10N, while moderate sw flow is expected s of the monsoon trough
through the upcoming weekend. Winds will become light and
variable across the waters n of 11N on Sat with little change
except moderate e flow possible across the Gulf of Papagayo on
Sun night. Combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, primarily in long-period
sw swell is expected across the offshore waters for the next 3
to 5 days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends from 32N133W to 14N114W. Moderate ne trades and
6 to 9 ft seas are expected through Sat s of the ridge and n of
lower pressure within the monsoon trough. Combined seas of 6 to
9 ft will gradually subside through Sat. The ridge will
reorientate from 32N132W to 24N140W on Sat night with light
anticyclonic winds across the area. The ridge will shift e and
weaken on Sun allowing a cold front to reach from 32N137W to
28N140W. The front will quickly stall and gradually dissipate
across the far nw waters through the middle of next week, but
associated nw swell will build combined seas to 7 to 10 ft nw of
line from 32N130W to 25N140W on Tue night.
      
$$
Nelson