000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 UTC Thu Oct 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from 14N92W to 15N100W to 13N107W to
11N127W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between
97W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 115W and 128W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered north of the area extends a ridge
southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh
northwesterly winds prevail over the waters off the west coast of
Baja California Norte, while light and variable winds prevail over
the Gulf of California and gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range off the coast of Baja
California Norte, 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft
elsewhere. The ridge will continue to weaken over the next couple
of days. This will diminish winds over the forecast area, with
light to gentle winds prevailing over much of the forecast area by
this weekend.

A cold front will push across the Gulf of Mexico by Friday,
ushering in a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Winds behind
the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late Friday and will increase to 25 kt during the
overnight hours Friday into Saturday. A reinforcing push behind
the cold front is expected Saturday. This will increase winds
funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near gale force, and
perhaps even minimal gale force, Saturday night through Monday.
The gap wind event is expected to continue into the early part of
next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds prevail over the waters north of
10N while gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south
of 10N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, primarily in long period
southwesterly swell. These conditions are expected to prevail
through Saturday. Wind will become easterly north of 10N on
Sunday as the monsoon trough shifts back southward over the
forecast area.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1027 mb centered north of the area near 36N135W
extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting an area of
moderate to fresh winds north of the monsoon trough to 22N. These
winds are helping to generate seas in the 6-8 ft range over this
area. Seas are expected to drop below 8 ft over this area within
24 hours. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range
prevail over the remainder of the waters. The ridge will weaken
over the next several days, bringing a decrease in winds and seas
over the area.
      
$$
AL