000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060240
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
224 UTC Thu Oct 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

Monsoon trough from 10N86W to 12N100W to 12N120W to 1012 MB low
pressure near 11N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted from 08N to 13N between 119W and 127W.
Scattered moderate convection noted from 09N to 12N between 95W
and 105W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1027 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near 34N143W
extends a ridge southeast to 21N115W. Moderate to locally fresh
winds prevail over the coast waters west of Baja California Norte,
light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf of California, and
gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the
forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the coastal
waters off Baja California Norte and 8-9 ft over the offshore
waters N of 29N between 119W and 123W. The seas are expected to
spread southward to 25N over the next 24 to 48 hours. Seas are 2
ft or less over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft over the
remainder of the forecast waters. The ridge will weaken over the
next several days. This will loosen the pressure gradient and
diminish winds off the west coast of Baja California. By this
weekend, light to gentle winds will prevail over much of the
forecast waters.

Fresh to strong northerly winds aided by drainage flow is
expected to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, with
wind increasing further Sat evening with the potential for winds
to briefly reach gale force.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds prevail over the waters north of
10N while gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south
of 10N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, primarily in long period
southwesterly swell. These conditions are expected to prevail
through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

1027 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near 34N143W
extends a ridge southeast to 21N115W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the
monsoon trough is supporting an area of moderate to fresh winds
north of the monsoon trough to 20N. These winds are helping to
generate seas in the 8 ft range over this area. The area of seas
are expected to drop below 8 ft within 24 hours. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail over the
remainder of the waters. The ridge will weaken over the next
several days. This will bring a decrease in winds and seas over
the area.
      
$$
COBB