000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052107
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2025 UTC Wed Oct 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from the offshore waters off Nicaragua
near 10N87W to 12N100W to 12N110W to 1012 MB low near 11N120W to
another low 1010 MB near 11N132W TO 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 12N between 93W
and 123W. Additionally scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from was noted from 08N to 11N between 132W
and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1026 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near 33N142W
extends a ridge southeast to 21N115W. Moderate to locally fresh
winds prevail over the coast waters west of Baja California Norte,
light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf of California, and
gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the
forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the coastal
waters off Baja California Norte, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of
California, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters.
The ridge will weaken over the next several days. This will loosen
the pressure gradient and diminish winds off the west coast of
Baja California. By this weekend, light to gentle winds will
prevail over much of the forecast waters.

Strong drainage flow is expected to develop across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Fri night, with the potential for gale conditions
Sat evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds prevail over the waters north of
10N while gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south
of 10N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, primarily in long period
southwesterly swell. These conditions are expected to prevail
through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

1025 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near
33N142W extends a ridge southeast to 21N115W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting an area of moderate to
fresh winds north of the monsoon trough to 20N. These winds are
helping to generate seas in the 7-9 ft range over this area.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail over
the remainder of the waters. The ridge will weaken over the next
several days. This will bring a decrease in winds and seas over
the area.
      
$$
COBB