000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051505
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1630 UTC Wed Oct 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from the southwest coast of Nicaragua
near 11N86W TO 12N100W TO 13N115W TO 1011 mb near 12N119W to
1011 MB low near 11N132W TO 08N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 09N to 13N between 93W and
120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
07N to 12N between 120W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1025 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near
33N144W extends a ridge southeast to 20N114W. Moderate to
locally fresh winds prevail over the coast waters west of Baja
California Norte, light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf
of California, and gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
remainder of the forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range
over the coastal waters off Baja California Norte, 2 ft or less
over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of
the forecast waters. The ridge will weaken over the next several
days. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds
off the west coast of Baja California. By this weekend, light to
gentle winds will prevail over much of the forecast waters.

Strong drainage flow is expected to develop across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Fri night, with the potential for gale conditions
Sat evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds prevail over the waters north of
10N while gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south
of 10N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, primarily in long period
southwesterly swell. These conditions are expected to prevail
through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

1025 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near
33N144W extends a ridge southeast to 20N114W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting an area of moderate to
fresh winds north of the monsoon trough to 22N. These winds are
helping to generate seas in the 6-8 ft range over this area.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail
over the remainder of the waters. The ridge will weaken over the
next several days. This will bring a decrease in winds and seas
over the area.
      
$$
FORMOSA