000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
505 UTC Wed Oct 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from the southwest coast of Mexico to
16N110W to 11N120W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 30 nm north and 60 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 116W and 121W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 129W and 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered northwest of the area extends a ridge
southeast to near the Revillagigedo islands. Moderate to locally
fresh winds prevail over the coast waters west of Baja California
Norte, light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf of
California, and gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
remainder of the forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range
over the coastal waters off Baja California Norte, 2 ft or less
over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the
forecast waters. The ridge will weaken over the next several days.
This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds off the
west coast of Baja California. By this weekend, light to gentle
winds will prevail over much of the forecast waters.

Strong to near gale drainage flow is expected to develop across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri night, with the potential for
minimal gale conditions late Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds prevail over the waters north of
10N while gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south
of 10N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, primarily in long period
southwesterly swell. These conditions are expected to prevail
through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1026 mb centered northwest of the area near
32N133W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo
islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting an area
of moderate to fresh winds north of the monsoon trough to 22N.
These winds are helping to generate seas in the 6-8 ft range over
this area. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range
prevail over the remainder of the waters. The ridge will weaken
over the next several days. This will bring a decrease in winds
and seas over the area.
      
$$
AL