000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050231 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 05 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Scatterometer winds indicate that the monsoon trough develops at 13N101W and extends sw through an embedded 1010 mb surface low at 12N117W, then turns w through a 1012 mb low pressure at 10N132W, with the trough continuing wsw to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side of a line from 08N84W to 12N96W to 11N109W to 09N123W to beyond 11N135W. Isolated moderate and strong convection is observed within 120 nm of 19N106W and 16.5N118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from nw to se across the Pacific waters just w of the offshore zones w of the Baja Peninsula. Fresh nw flow is observed n of 28N with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate nw-n flow is observed elsewhere across the open Pacific waters w of 108W. The gradient will tighten across the waters n of 30N tonight, with the nw flow increasing to strong with associated seas building to 11 ft along 32N by early Wed. The gradient will relax Thu with moderate nw winds forecast w of the Baja Peninsula on Thu night into Fri, and light to gentle w-nw flow forecast on Fri night through the weekend. Light and variable winds expected through Thu across the Gulf of California, except becoming moderate to locally fresh n winds to the n of 30N on Thu night through Sat. Light to moderate w winds expected elsewhere within 250 nm of the Mexican coast through Thu night, with combined seas of 3 to 6 ft primarily due the long-period sw swell. Strong to near gale drainage flow expected to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri night, with guidance hinting at minimal gale conditions late Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle westerly winds are expected n of the monsoon trough which is meandering e to w along about 10N, while moderate sw flow is expected s of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend. Combined seas of 3 to 6 ft, primarily in long- period sw swell is expected across the offshore waters through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 32N140W to 14N108W, and a 1012 mb low pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough at 10N132W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is producing an area of fresh ne trades roughly from 15N to 22N between 120W and 140W, with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixing n and s swells. The low is forecast to move to near 11N135W on Wed with a trough extending ne to 15N130W. The pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh ne winds w of the low and trough, and fresh s winds within about 180 nm se of the low. The low is forecast to reach near 12N138W late Thu, and move w of 140W on Fri. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently not very favorable for tropical cyclone formation. $$ Nelson