000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042146
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 4 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

Scatterometer winds indicate that the monsoon trough develops at
12N93W and extends w to 13N114W, then dips sw through an
embedded 1010 mb low pressure at 10N131W, with the trough
continuing wsw to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side of a
line from 08N84W to 11N96W to 08N127W to beyond 11N135W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge axis extends from nw to se across the
Pacific waters just w of the offshore zones w of the Baja
Peninsula. Fresh nw flow is observed n of 28N with combined
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate nw-n flow is observed elsewhere
across the open Pacific waters w of 105W. The gradient will
tighten across the waters n of 30N tonight, with the nw flow
increasing to strong and combined seas building to 11 ft along
32N. The gradient will relax with moderate nw winds forecast w
of the Baja Peninsula on Fri and light to gentle nw flow
forecast on Fri night through the weekend. 

Light and variable winds expected through Thu across the Gulf of
California, except becoming moderate n winds n of 30N late Thu.

Light to moderate w winds expected elsewhere within 250 nm of
the Mexican coast through Thu, with combined seas of 3 to 6 ft
primarily due the long-period sw swell.

Strong to near gale drainage flow expected to develop across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri night, with guidance hinting at
minimal gale conditions late Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds are expected n of the monsoon
trough which is meandering e to w along about 10N, while
moderate sw flow is expected s of the monsoon trough through the
upcoming weekend. Combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, primarily in long-
period sw swell is expected across the offshore waters through
the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends from 32N140W to 14N108W, and a 1012 mb low
pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough at 10N131W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within
the monsoon trough is producing an area of fresh ne trades
roughly from 15N to 22N between 121W and 140W, with combined
seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixing n and s swells. The low is forecast
to move to near 11N134W on Wed with a trough extending ne to
16N127W. Gradient will support moderate to fresh ne winds w of
the low and trough, and fresh s winds within about 180 nm se of
the low. The low is forecast to reach near 12N137W on Thu, and
move w of 140W on Fri. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are
not very favorable for tropical cyclone formation.  
      
$$
Nelson