000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 UTC Tue Oct 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from the southwest coast of Mexico to
11N115W to 11N125W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough 107W
and 125W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm of
the monsoon trough west of 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered nw of the area extends a ridge southeast
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh northwesterly
winds winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the waters except
light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf of California.
Seas are in the 7-8 ft range off the coast of Baja California
Norte, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
The ridge will weaken through the week with mainly gentle to
moderate winds prevailing over much of the forecast waters by
weeks end.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough has lifted northward with mainly light
southwest to west winds prevailing over the forecast waters.Seas
of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwesterly swell are expected
across the offshore waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1027 mb centered northwest of the area near
33N146W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure in the monsoon trough is producing an area of moderate
to fresh tradewinds north of the monsoon trough to 25N. This area
of trades is helping produce seas in the 7-8 ft range north of the
monsoon trough to near 23N. The area of high pressure will weaken
which will decrease winds and seas over the forecast waters
through midweek. Low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near
10N131W will continue to shift westward over the next few days
before moving west of the area by the end of the week. 
      
$$
AL