000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040231
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 12N100W to 12N110W to 10N118W
to 12N125W to low pressure near 11N129W 1010 mb to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
south of the axis between 102W and 105W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 130W and
135W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge extends from a 1027 mb high center located
to the northwest of the area near 32N144W southeastward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. A tight pressure gradient remains between
the ridge and the Baja California peninsula. The resultant winds
were highlighted in a recently received Ascat pass that showed
moderate to fresh NW to N winds north of 28N west of the Baja
California peninsula to near 121W. A pocket of strong NW winds are
within 60 nm west of the peninsula north of 29N. Seas with these
winds are in the range of 8 to 9 ft. As the gradient relaxes
through Wednesday, these winds will diminish to mainly moderate to
fresh intensity north of about 25N. A continuing NW swell will
maintain seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 28N between 118W and 132W on
Wednesday. The Ascat pass showed light to gentle winds south of
25N. Seas there are in the range of 5 to 8 ft, and are forecast to
subside to 5 to 6 ft Wednesday. Seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have subsided to 3 to 5 ft per a recent altimeter pass.

Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are in the Gulf of 
California. These winds are forecast to become generally light
and variable on Wednesday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds across the area will become westerly at
10 to 15 kt through Wednesday. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period
southwesterly swell are expected across the offshore waters
through Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered northwest of
the area as mentioned above and low pressure in the deep tropics
near the Monsoon Trough is supporting an area of strong NE to E 
winds from 16N to 21N west of 138W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. The 
high pressure is forecast to weaken weaken slightly as its shifts
some to the south. This should weaken the pressure gradient
allowing for the strong trades to diminish to fresh intensity from 
15N to 22N west of 135W on Tuesday, and from 14N to 18N west of 
135W on Wednesday with seas of 6 to 8 ft in a NE swell.

Latest satellite imagery shows small low pressure embedded within
the monsoon trough near 11N129W. Scattered strong convection is
within 90 nm of the low in the southeast quadrant. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the low
in the northeast quadrant, and within 150 nm of the low in the 
southwest quadrant. The globals show the low tracking in a general
westward direction over the next couple of days, with the GFS and
UKMET guidance being the most aggressive in depicting this low
becoming better organized. A swath of 20 to 25 kt winds with seas
of 8 to 10 ft is forecast to gradually expand within 90 to 120 nm
of the low in the southeast semicircle, and within 90 nm in the
northwest quadrant.
      
$$
AGUIRRE